Mixed forecast for agricultural exports in 2014

Update: 1/24/2014

( Online HQ ) - Export of rice , coffee , rubber would have difficulty forecasting turnover and prices in 2014. While there have been positive signs from cashew , pepper , and vegetables .
Processing of agricultural products exported in Vifoco
Processing of agricultural products exported in Vifoco . Photo: Tran VIETNAM .
Hard to increase turnover and prices
Mr. Pham Van Bay - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association forecasts 2014 exports ( export ) , rice consumption goods will be more difficult to export can only equivalent in 2013 was about 6 , 5-7 million tons . The reason the world rice market continued to sell off pressure of Thailand and export competition from major supply sources in Asia should continue to trend decline in 2014. The advantage of Vietnam 's competitiveness is aromatic rice , high quality white rice in the African market and the demand from the market close , fast delivery in Southeast Asia as well as exports to China border .
Ms. Tran Thi Thuy Hoa - Director of the Office of Vietnam Rubber Association ( VRA ) says 2014 output of natural rubber latex is still forecast to increase, supply will exceed demand in the world , while market consumption can not recover strongly as in previous years , the price of rubber increased exports will be difficult . According to United , the rubber export companies are trying to diversify the market, if the previous year natural rubber exports to China accounts for about 65-70 % of the 2013 sales volume of just under 50 % . Other markets such as Malaysia , India has increased the consumption of rubber significantly Vietnam , Malaysia for instance is your 2nd line of imported commodities , accounting for approximately 21 % of total export value .
2014 is still regarded as a difficult year for the coffee industry when Nguyen Viet Vinh - Secretary General Association Vietnam Coffee Cocoa ( Vicofa ) said that changes in supply and demand on the market is complex , output fell by more old coffee area , many manufacturers and export companies have not yet handle debt issues related to bad debt . Also, export coffee prices expected to remain low due to market demand and supply erratic . Although world stock plummeted in the country but the situation is still difficult , projected coffee output 2013-2014 crop year will likely fall by 10-15 % due to the effects of weather and climate conditions old coffee continues to rise .
Signals optimism
Vietnam Cashew Association ( Vinacas ) forecasts 2014 industry growth rate that retains at least by 2013. Accordingly , even export targets $ 1.5 billion in 2013 but the final result shows that commodities have reached $ 1.66 billion , up 19 % in volume and 13 % in value . Including items cashew nut shell oil and cashew products deep processing , both the 2013 cashew export value of about 1.8 to 1.9 billion. Mr. Nguyen Duc Thanh - Chairman Vinacas forecast in 2014, if companies are promoting deep processing and export prices better things in 2013 , this export value up over $ 2 billion . About the price of exports , export prices in the early days continuously increasing due to China to boost customers buy individual serving Tet holidays .
One other item fast growth in 2013 and joined the group of commodities billion export turnover of vegetables is by taking more than 1,037 billion , an increase of over 25 % compared with 2012. The horticulture export products of Vietnam 's strengths dragon , green grapefruit , fresh vegetables , canned and frozen . According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association ( Vinafruit ) , 2014 items horticulture growth prospects for the export turnover from 20-30 % and expect Vinafruit vegetable export turnover will exceed 1 mark billion.
Despite the advantages in export prices , sale prices stable in 2013 at around 120,000 VND / kg but Vietnam Pepper Association ( VPA ) predicted that 2014 would be cautious about 125,000 XK - 130,000 tonnes of pepper, earning approximately $ 900 million , equivalent to 2013. VPA said pepper inventories at the end of 2013 the less , while output is forecast to increase in 2014 not many on the other hand consumption of pepper on the market can stabilize and increase , the product so far this year is still high . VPA reason to believe the market prices of pepper will be high and stable over the years by Vietnam tops the world in pepper export volume accounts for over 50 % per year pepper exports to Vietnam have the ability to participate in stabilizing markets and prices if there is a consensus among exporting companies and the pepper plant .
Quang Duy -
Back to Top