Agriculture faces tough 2014 double

Update: 3/24/2014

The growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last 2 years have not bottomed since 1991 back, but this year , this sector is forecast to be even more difficult , due to sluggish exports , in when massive foreign agricultural products into the domestic market .
If you look at statistics from the chain in 1991 , can be seen , two years before the end of the last decade was the worst period of our country's agriculture , grew by only 2.3 % on average / year , while the last two years was 2.68 % / year .
However , emerging signs clearly enough to speculate that the sector creates stable platform for this economy is facing difficulties , acute difficulties even in this the third consecutive year .
It first of all , in the export of agricultural products facing difficulties , the agricultural products are poured into the domestic market . This difficulty means " double " that farmers are facing .
Exports continue to be difficult
The statistics just published shows that 11 of the total exports mainly agricultural products in the last 2 months only reached 3.84 billion U.S. dollars , an increase of 3.9 % , far lower than the same period last year in 2013 .
In particular, exports of 7 main items have statistics on the volume and value ( including rice, coffee , cashew nuts , rubber , cassava and cassava products , pepper and tea ) remains difficult much more . The total volume of goods exports was only 1.94 billion tons , down 15.6 % compared to the same period last year and total turnover reached just over 1.73 million, down to 15.5 % .
The foregoing means that exports are agricultural products fall into a difficult situation for the third consecutive year .
The cause of the condition such export slowdown is due to world prices of agricultural products generally downward fluctuations lasting from 2012 to present. The statistics of the World Bank found that world agricultural prices fell 5.8 % in 2012 , 2013 and continued to decline by 7.2% overall decline in the last 2 years is 12.6 % .
Obviously , the exporter of agricultural products is large, deep discount in a very long time so pushing the economy in general and agriculture in particular in our country very difficult situation .
Typical in this respect is the most rubber items . If in the first 2 months of 2012, to limit state sales dropped by export price " freefall " , Vietnam has increased export volume , but in the same period of 2013, the export value and volume are significantly reduced . 2 months of this year , as prices continue to decline , the total fell 53 % compared to the same period in 2011 , the export volume also declined dramatically . Resonance between the 2 main factors have led exports of rubber products decreased by 57 % compared to the same period in 2011 .
Agricultural imports accelerated
At imported inputs , total imports accumulated 14 agricultural products and agricultural materials mainly in the last 2 months has reached 2.44 billion U.S. dollars , up 10.3 % compared to the same period in 2013 , high 2.7 times compared with the pace of export growth .
Imports of agricultural products acceleration means more consumption of agricultural products "made in Vietnam " in the domestic market will become extremely difficult .
The most typical in this respect is that corn commodity economy is huge consumer demand . Imports grew corn boom in the past two months , nearly 1.3 million tons , with 57.4 % of the total import volume both in 2013. Certainly , the foreign corn poured into the domestic market thus making the consumption of around 5 million tonnes of maize production in the country in this very difficult year . Corn prices in the Mekong River Delta is now " free fall " down to 3,800 VND / kg , which is only half the price compared to the " golden age " not far from here was enough to see it .
Besides, the production and consumption of many other agricultural products in the domestic market is also facing difficulties because of various reasons . For example , if the poultry sector is still bedeviled by the raging bird flu , the earlier, growers had to accept the situation as cheap , because supply increases while demand is limited. Or the sugarcane farmers continue to reel for a second consecutive road continue when supply is greater than demand , plus the illegal sugar imports continued to spill into ...
Such difficulties in selling farm produce not only natural that the growth rate of agricultural production this year is hard to move up , which also means that the income of rural residents has not improved , resulting in the purchasing power of the domestic market is still weak, industry and services will continue to break the market lacks .
The foregoing means , rescued out of the state of agriculture today is key to the economy could achieve growth rate as desired .
Nguyen Dinh Bich / Investment Review
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